Was listening to NPR this eveing on the way home from work and they covered an interesting new business that is taking advantage of the rising tide of foreclosures on the market. Two San Diego lawyers have created a new web site called YOUWALKAWAY.com that provides consumers with a foreclosure kit so that they can literally simply leave their houses in eight months after foreclosure. Interesting business, but may not be a great thing for the real estate or mortgage industries to promote to consumers.
What do you think? Interesting and innovative business model, but may be a tough one for the real estate industry to swallow.
I thought I would follow-up my previous January post covering the real estate January Effect with a February update. As interest rates decline and we are entering prime home buying season (spring to early summer), we are seeing suprising resilience in the online real estate and mortgage category. The BIGGEST surprise is that Zillow traffic has ramped significantly in the month of February. This is very interesting. Zillow has made a number of big announcements around acquiring more listings. There is a high correlation between traffic, nationwide coverage, and the number of listings that a web site has. Zillow recently broke through the 1 million listings barrier which is a major milestone for the company. I wonder if the recent uptick in traffic has to do with increased refinance traffic.
In Tier Two of online real estate, HomeGain appears to be on a tear growing reach nicely over the past three months. This is largely due to HomeGain’s significant affiliate network and SEO investments. BuyerLink is the growth engine for that business and is probably doing well in this environment.
All players in the mortgage lead generation industry (BankRate, LendingTree, LowerMyBills) are seeing increased consumer demand for information around refinancing their mortgage ever since the Fed made its aggressive rate cuts in January. Notice significant traffic increases in January which appear to have declined in February. LowerMyBills and LendingTree seem to be experiencing steadier traffic levels. It is clear that both LendingTree and LowerMyBills have reduced their ads spends significantly over the past six months. I have been impressed by Experian swapping out LowerMyBills ads with ClassesUSA where appropriate in their banner advertising strategy.
Tier One Real Estate Reach:
Tier One Real Estate Page Views:
Notice how Zillow reach (or unique visitors) seems to be increasing but pageviews have been declining. Interesting trend. Maybe an indication of more people checking the value of their home versus spending increased time searching for homes for sale or neighborhood information.
Tier Two Real Estate Reach:
Tier Two Real Estate Page Views:
Mortgage Page Views:
Posted in housevalues, mortgage, online marketing, real estate, Uncategorized, zillow
Tagged bankrate, homegain, lendingtree, lowermybills, nikesh parekh, online real estate, traffic update, zillow
Since I have a decent amount of experience in the real estate and mortgage industries, a number of friends have been asking me if it is time to refinance their ARM or fixed rate mortgage or if they should lock-in a rate on a house they are purchasing today. Summary thoughts: Rates seem pretty good right now. There is a chance that they will fall further by the end of the year, but the likelihood is 50/50. Most experts seem to think that rates will actually rise due to tightening lending standards and a deteriorating US housing market / financial system.
Here are my thoughts:
1) Further cuts likely: Based on Bernake’s commentary today, further rate cuts are likely before the end of the year due to a slowing US economy. My sense is that these rate cuts are on the mid-term horizon (maybe three mos or more). If you are thinking that you want to refinance sooner, my sense is that rates are pretty compelling today.
2) Experts Feel Like Rates Will Rise: I generally check out the BankRate mortgage expert index to get a sense of where the market is. Since there was a sense that the Fed was going to cut rates, mortgage rates dropped pretty dramatically and experts have felt that rates were going to rise. Since I have been watching this index, the experts have been right in that rates have gone up slightly over the past month or so.
3) Watch the Fees: Terri Cullen of the Wall Street Journal has a good article this week here in Fiscally Fit – WSJ.com saying that banks and lenders are increasing their fees in light of financial weakness. It’s worth shopping around and then negotiating the fees with the bank or broker. Pay closest attention to the lender fees as they are the ones that are most negotiable.
4) Personal Financial Decision: Here is a good post from Active Rain on when you should think about refinancing your mortgage. Lee Zacharczyk of Atlantic Home Loans in Freehold, NJ says that you should think about 1) How long do you expect to own your home? 2) Where are interest rates from an historical perspective? 3) How long do you expect to be in this mortgage, i.e. will you be able to pay it off early?
Just like the stock market, experts have long said that it is impossible to time the market. Home mortgages are the same way. I would make sure you are comfortable with the long-term rates and the fees you will need to pay to refinance. If you are getting a good rate with reasonable fees, locking in a lower rate for peace of mind is a worthy trade. As always, it is important to shop around.
If have questions or are interested in a recommendation, feel free to email me at nparekh00 `at` gmail
Posted in mortgage, online marketing, real estate
Tagged bankrate, fiscally fit, interest rates, mortgage, mortgage rates, nikesh parekh, refinance, refinance now, terri cullen
Kodak has staged a major turnaround of its business by transitioning from film to digital technology. They are looking to enable another industry hit hard by the Internet – newspapers. Kodak is developing a high-speed printer that will enable newspapers to microcustomize their content and ads in newspapers at the neighborhood level. Interesting idea that would require major change from the newspapers. My gut tells me that this is a technology that is searching for a market. The real challenge to micronews in my opinion is local sales and service to small businesses, not the printing.
Kodak Knows a Little About Dying Business Models – Bits – Technology – New York Times Blog
I came across this at the intersection of Main Street and Bellevue Way in Bellevue, WA. Seems like Amazon is making a big push with its AmazonFresh grocery delivery service. Interesting to see that they actually have a retail presence encouraging consumers to stop by and subscribe/use the service. I would have expected to see Amazon completely focused on driving adoption via the web and using an old school warehouse to fulfill.
On my way into work today, I actually got stuck behind an AmazonFresh truck. Looks like they are making some headway with adoption… at least in Bellevue.
The Internet has obviously turned all media on its ear by disrupting or destroying the power of traditional physical distribution. Go down the list: first the newspapers, the music distributors, now film & television… The Internet is enabling anyone to be an artist, but the challenge is not distribution – it has become marketing.
In last week’s Wired Magazine, David Byrne of the Talking Heads goes through the various models for music publishing and how artists should evaluate alternatives. The six models are:
The 360 or Equity Deal: Every aspect of the artist’s career is handled by producers, promoters, marketing people, and managers. The artist becomes a brand, owned and operated by the label.
Standard Distribution Deal: The record company bankrolls the recording and handles the manufacturing, distribution, press, and promotion. The artist gets a royalty percentage after all those other costs are repaid. The label, in this scenario, owns the copyright to the recording.
The Licensing Deal: The license deal is similar to the standard deal, except in this case the artist retains the copyrights and ownership of the master recording.
Profit Sharing: Minimal advance from the recording label; artist and publisher share in profits from day one.
Manufacturing and Distribution Deal: Artist does everything except manufacture and distribute the product. Artists have full control. Most labels don’t do these deals.
Self-Distribution Model: The artist does everything. Music is self-produced, self-written, self-played, and self-marketed.
I believe all content (words, music, images, video) will ultimately fall into one these buckets/models and new publishers will emerge to capitalize on the opportunities left open by the traditional distribution model. Ultimately more power is shifting to high quality content creators.
David Byrne’s Survival Strategies for Emerging Artists — and Megastars